តើ​ការ​ធ្វើ​ពហិការ​កំពុង​ធ្វើ​ឲ្យ​ប៉ះពាល់​ដល់​សេដ្ឋកិច្ច​កម្ពុជា​ចំពេល​ជម្លោះ​ព្រំដែន​កម្ពុជា-ថៃ ឆ្នាំ​២០២៥

 How Boycotts Are Hurting Cambodia’s Economy Amid the 2025 Thailand-Cambodia Border Conflict

Introduction

Since fighting flared along the Preah Vihear frontier in mid-2025, Cambodian consumers and businesses have launched a widespread boycott of Thai goods. This grassroots movement aims to pressure Thailand politically, but it’s also disrupting supply chains, employment and investor sentiment across Cambodia. The economic fallout is unfolding even as diplomatic channels and ASEAN mediation seek to stabilize the ceasefire.

Retail and Consumer Goods Disruptions

Many retailers have completely removed Thai-branded products—from convenience-store snacks to household appliances—creating sudden shortages. Small merchants struggle to source comparable alternatives from China or Vietnam without hiking prices or sacrificing quality. Local entrepreneurs like So Theavik, a Phnom Penh footwear seller, report difficulty finding non-Thai shoes that meet customer preferences and price points

Employment and Investment Pressures

Thai-linked companies in Cambodia span food processing, agriculture and retail, collectively employing tens of thousands of Cambodians. A collapse in sales at these firms would directly hit local incomes before impacting Thai workers abroad. Business leaders warn that lost jobs and stalled investments could widen poverty and undermine long-term sovereignty goals by shrinking government revenues needed for border defense and public services

Tourism Sector Vulnerabilities

Tourism accounted for roughly 9 percent of Cambodia’s GDP in 2024, with 6.7 million visitors that year. Although most hotspots lie far from the border, travel advisories and media coverage of artillery exchanges have dampened booking confidence. Unlike Thailand—which has larger fiscal buffers and robust tourism promotion boards—Cambodia lacks sufficient policy tools to offset a sudden drop in visitor arrivals

Macroeconomic Ramifications

Bilateral trade between Cambodia and Thailand reached $4.3 billion in 2024, making Thailand Cambodia’s top export destination. The boycott is depressing import volumes and forcing inefficient shifts to pricier suppliers, stoking inflation on everyday goods. Simultaneously, foreign investors are recalibrating risk assessments as consumer unrest and border tensions signal broader instability in Cambodia’s business environment

Social Costs and Rural Strains

Rural border communities, already displaced by shelling and landmines, face escalating debt and food insecurity as traditional cross-border commerce grinds to a halt. Displaced farmers and smallholders have lost access to Thai markets for rubber, cassava and other cash crops, compounding the hardship documented among villagers in Surin and Sisaket provinces who fled violence earlier in 2025

Policy Responses and Diversification Efforts

To mitigate economic pain, Cambodian policymakers are urging diversification of import sources and fast-tracking trade agreements with Vietnam, China and ASEAN partners. Some propose temporary subsidies for affected small businesses and emergency credit lines for displaced border residents. Long-term resilience may hinge on bolstering local manufacturing, expanding social safety nets and deepening regional supply-chain integration.

Summary of Economic Impacts

Sector :

• Consumer Goods Retail: Impact Details Shortages of Thai products; higher prices for alternatives
• Supporting Data : Cambodia–Thailand trade was $4.3 billion in 2024 .
• Employment :Impact Details Job-loss risk in Thai-linked firms
• Supporting Data :  Thai companies employ tens of thousands locally
• Tourism : Impact Details Revenue declines from travel warnings
• Supporting Data : Tourism = 9 % of GDP; 6.7 million visitors in 2024
• Investment Confidence: Impact Details FDI slowdown; negative market sentiment
• Supporting Data :  Boycotts signal instability to investors

Looking Ahead

Sustaining the boycott could amplify Cambodia’s economic hardship unless paired with robust diversification and social support measures. Beyond supply-chain shifts, digital payment systems and cross-border e-commerce platforms may offer alternative trade channels. ASEAN’s continued diplomatic engagement will be vital to restore investor confidence and prevent this economic strain from entrenching long-term regional divergences.

Long-Term Economic Impacts of the Thailand–Cambodia Border Conflict

: Lowered GDP Growth Trajectory

Cambodia’s GDP growth forecast has been revised downward from an anticipated 5% to around 3% for both 2025 and 2026 due to the conflict’s ripple effects on key sectors and investor sentiment

Tourism Sector Scars and Recovery

Angkor Wat ticket sales plunged by nearly 20%, translating into an estimated 10% drop in tourism spending, which equates to about a 2% drag on GDP. While a medium-term recovery is expected once stability returns, reputational damage and higher travel-insurance costs may suppress growth for several years

Remittances and Labor Mobility Shifts

An estimated 750,000 Cambodian workers have returned from Thailand, causing remittances to fall by roughly 25% (about $375 million), or a 1.5% GDP loss. In the long run, this shock could spur policies to diversify labor destinations and strengthen domestic job creation programs

Supply-Chain Realignment and Trade Costs

Short-term disruptions have driven a greater than 3% GDP impact over the next year by forcing firms to source from higher-priced markets. Over time, deeper ASEAN trade integration and new bilateral accords may restore efficiency, though some cost premiums could become permanent

Foreign Direct Investment and Fiscal Buffers

FDI inflows are slowing as investors reassess political risks. Cambodia’s low government debt ratio (27% of GDP) and strong fiscal discipline provide space for targeted stimulus. Strategic reforms—particularly in transparency and ease of doing business—will be critical to regaining investor confidence

Structural Reform and Human-Capital Development

The conflict underscores the need for governance reforms and upskilling initiatives. Expanded vocational training and digital-economy programs can accelerate the transition to higher-value industries, turning today’s challenges into tomorrow’s competitive advantages

Regional Interdependence and Diversification

Thailand’s heightened recession risk may prolong bilateral trade slumps. In response, Cambodia is likely to deepen ties with Vietnam, China, and other ASEAN partners, reshaping long-term trade and logistics networks to reduce vulnerability to any single neighbor .

Looking Ahead

Sustained economic resilience will hinge on

• Swift diplomatic de-escalation and ASEAN mediation
• Fast-tracked structural reforms (trade, labor, governance)
• Strategic investment in human capital and infrastructure
• Diversified partnerships across Southeast Asia

These measures can transform the current setback into a springboard for more balanced, sustainable growth in the decade ahead.