បទ​វិភាគ៖ ពហិការ​ប៉ះពាល់​ដល់​សេដ្ឋកិច្ច​កម្ពុជា

 Analysis: How Boycotts Are Hurting Cambodia's Economy Amid the 2025 Thailand-Cambodia Border Conflict




The 2025 Thailand-Cambodia border conflict, which began escalating in May with a deadly skirmish and intensified into armed clashes by July, has triggered a series of retaliatory boycotts and bans primarily initiated by Cambodia against Thai goods and services. These measures, including bans on Thai imports like fruits, vegetables, fuel, gas, and even cultural products such as soap operas and films, are framed by Cambodian leaders as responses to perceived Thai aggression and border encroachments. However, economic analyses indicate that these boycotts disproportionately harm Cambodia's economy due to its heavy reliance on Thai trade, tourism, and remittances, exacerbating the broader conflict's impacts. Cambodia's GDP growth forecast has been downgraded to around 3% for 2025 and 2026, with the conflict and boycotts potentially shaving off over 3% of GDP in the next 12 months—far outstripping the effects of anticipated U.S. tariffs. This analysis explores the boycotts' mechanisms, sectoral impacts, and counterarguments suggesting they may backfire on Cambodia.



Context and Specific Boycotts


The boycotts stem from longstanding territorial disputes, reignited by a May 28, 2025, clash that killed a Cambodian soldier in the "Emerald Triangle" region. Cambodia, viewing Thailand's actions as invasive, has imposed tit-for-tat measures to pressure Bangkok. Key boycotts include:


  • Fruit and Vegetable Imports: Effective June 2025, Cambodia banned Thai fruits and vegetables following an ultimatum from former leader Hun Sen, unless Thailand lifted border restrictions.
  • Fuel and Gas Imports: In June, Cambodia halted all fuel and gas imports from Thailand (previously 30% of its supply), with Prime Minister Hun Manet assuring alternatives from other sources.
  • Cultural and Digital Products: Bans on Thai films, TV shows (including soap operas), and reduced internet bandwidth from Thailand.
  • Other Measures: Shortened visa stays for Thais, border checkpoint closures, and grassroots calls for boycotting Thai beauty products and goods, with slogans like "Every Dollar Funds Their Weapons."


These actions have fueled nationalist sentiment in Cambodia but disrupted cross-border flows, amplifying economic vulnerabilities.


Economic Dependencies and Sectoral Impacts


Cambodia's economy is asymmetrically dependent on Thailand, with bilateral trade favoring Thailand (2024 surplus of $109.16 billion baht for Thailand). Boycotts and border closures have led to supply shortages, higher prices, and reduced economic activity, with Cambodia lacking the fiscal tools or reserves to mitigate shocks effectively.


  • Trade Disruptions: Border trade, valued at $175.53 billion baht in 2024, dropped 9.5% in June 2025 alone. Cambodia's bans on essentials like fuel and produce risk inflating domestic prices and straining supply chains, particularly in manufacturing and agriculture. While Cambodia has shifted to Vietnamese imports (showing a slight trade deficit but potential growth), this transition incurs higher costs and logistical delays.
  • Tourism Sector: Tourism contributes 9% to Cambodia's GDP (vs. 12% for Thailand), but Cambodia's industry is less mature and more vulnerable. In 2024, Cambodia hosted 6.7 million tourists compared to Thailand's 35 million; border closures have halted Thai gamblers crossing for Cambodian casinos, a key revenue source. Travel warnings and unrest erode confidence, with analysts noting Cambodia's instability perception deters repeat visitors.
  • Remittances and Migrant Workers: Over 1 million Cambodians work in Thailand, sending remittances that bolster Cambodia's economy. Boycotts and tensions have led to calls for boycotting Thai goods tied to migrant worker "abuse" allegations, but disruptions could force returns, reducing remittances and straining Cambodia's labor market. The conflict's FDI impacts further compound this, as investor uncertainty rises.
  • Energy and Broader Supply Chains: Halting 30% of fuel imports risks short-term shortages, despite alternatives, potentially hiking energy costs and affecting transportation and industry. Thai investments in Cambodia ($3.8 billion in 2024) support factories and infrastructure; boycotts could lead to pullbacks, worsening unemployment.



Overall, these impacts could exceed $300 million in damages (mirroring Thailand's estimates but scaled to Cambodia's smaller economy), with prolonged disputes threatening recession.


Counterarguments and Balanced Perspectives


While boycotts aim to pressure Thailand economically (e.g., targeting its export surplus), critics argue they hurt Cambodia more due to dependency. Cambodians are split: some see boycotts as undermining consumer rights and economic resilience, potentially weakening social harmony amid soldiers' detentions. Shifting to Vietnamese goods might diversify trade but could create new deficits ($2.4 billion exports vs. higher imports in early 2025). Nationalism drives the boycotts, but economists warn prolonged disputes amplify harm through high-running emotions rather than strategic gains. Thailand's larger, more diversified economy (with minimal border tourism reliance) absorbs shocks better, leaving Cambodia at a disadvantage.



In conclusion, Cambodia's boycotts, while symbolically potent, are inflicting self-harm by disrupting vital economic lifelines. With limited buffers, the country risks deeper recession unless de-escalation occurs. Fiscal stimulus and reforms could offset some damage, but addressing root disputes via bilateral talks or ICJ remains key.


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