វិភាគចំណុចខ្លាំង និងចំណុចខ្សោយជាយុទ្ធសាស្ត្រនៃសង្គ្រាមកម្ពុជា-ថៃ

 Analysis the Strategic Strengths and Weaknesses of the Cambodia-Thailand War




Below is a detailed analysis of the strategic strengths and weaknesses of both Cambodia and Thailand during the Cambodia-Thailand War of 2025. This conflict, which erupted on July 24, 2025, and ended with a fragile ceasefire on July 28, 2025, was rooted in a longstanding border dispute over territories such as the Prasat Ta Muen Thom temple. The war highlighted the military, economic, and geopolitical disparities between the two nations, shaping their respective strategies and outcomes. This analysis examines these aspects to provide a comprehensive understanding of each side's strategic position.


Historical Context


The Cambodia-Thailand War of 2025 was driven by a century-old border dispute, primarily centered on the Prasat Ta Muen Thom temple and surrounding areas. The conflict’s origins trace back to the 1907 French colonial map, which Cambodia uses to assert its territorial claims, while Thailand contests these boundaries based on historical sovereignty. Previous escalations, such as the 2008-2011 Preah Vihear conflict and the 1962 International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruling awarding the Preah Vihear temple to Cambodia, failed to resolve the underlying tensions. The 2025 war, one of the most severe flare-ups, resulted in 38 deaths and displaced over 270,000 civilians.


Military Capabilities



The military disparity between Thailand and Cambodia was a defining factor in the conflict, influencing each side’s strategic approach.



Thailand

Strengths:

Superior Military Technology: Thailand’s military, with 361,000 active personnel, is equipped with advanced assets, including 28 F-16 fighter jets, 11 Swedish Gripen aircraft, and modern Chinese VT-4 tanks. Its air force provided a significant advantage, enabling precision airstrikes on Cambodian positions.


Large and Diverse Forces: Thailand’s army (245,000 personnel), air force (46,000 personnel), and navy (70,000 personnel) are well-coordinated, allowing for multi-domain operations, including air superiority and ground maneuvers.



International Alliances: As a major non-NATO ally of the U.S., Thailand benefits from advanced military technology and joint exercises like Cobra Gold, enhancing its operational readiness.


Weaknesses:


Political Instability: Thailand’s history of political volatility, including coups and civil unrest, disrupted military decision-making during the conflict. The suspension of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra over a leaked call weakened leadership focus.


Logistical Challenges: The rugged, mountainous border terrain limited the effectiveness of ground operations, forcing Thailand to rely heavily on air and artillery strikes, which were vulnerable to Cambodia’s air defenses.


Cambodia


Strengths:

Defensive Terrain: Cambodia’s mountainous border regions provided natural fortifications, allowing its forces to entrench and resist Thai advances. This terrain advantage was crucial in slowing Thai ground operations.


Potential Chinese Support: Cambodia’s strong ties with China, evidenced by joint military exercises like Golden Dragon 2025 and the acquisition of Chinese QW-3 air defense systems, provided a strategic backstop. Chinese military aid could offset Cambodia’s technological disadvantages.


Weaknesses:


Inferior Military Capabilities: Cambodia’s military, with 124,300 personnel, relies on outdated Soviet-era equipment, such as T-54 and T-55 tanks, and lacks modern air power. Its air force has no fighter jets, leaving it vulnerable to Thai airstrikes.


Limited Economic Resources: Cambodia’s smaller economy ($33 billion GDP) constrained its ability to sustain prolonged military operations or recover from the conflict’s economic toll, including the displacement of 134,707 civilians.


Economic Factors


Economic capacity played a critical role in shaping each nation’s ability to wage and sustain the conflict.



Thailand

Strengths


Large Economy: Thailand’s $570 billion GDP (17 times larger than Cambodia’s) and $224.47 billion in foreign reserves provided a strong financial foundation. This enabled Thailand to fund military operations, manage humanitarian crises, and absorb the conflict’s $308 million economic toll.


Diversified Economy: Driven by tourism, manufacturing, and exports, Thailand’s economy offered resilience against disruptions, maintaining trade and tourism even in border regions.


Weaknesses:


Economic Vulnerability in Border Regions: The conflict disrupted border trade and tourism, particularly in provinces like Surin, declared a War Disaster Zone. Prolonged instability could erode investor confidence and strain resources.


Cambodia

Strengths

External Economic Support: Cambodia’s reliance on Chinese investment and aid provided a lifeline during the conflict, helping offset its limited financial capacity.


Weaknesses:

Small Economy: Cambodia’s $33 billion GDP and $17.8 billion in reserves were insufficient to manage the humanitarian crisis, with 134,707 displaced civilians straining resources. The conflict exacerbated Cambodia’s economic vulnerabilities, increasing its dependence on external aid.


Geopolitical Dynamics


The geopolitical landscape, including alliances and regional influences, significantly shaped the strategic calculus of both nations.


Thailand

Strengths:


U.S. Alliance: Thailand’s status as a U.S. ally provided access to advanced military technology and diplomatic support. Joint exercises like Cobra Gold enhanced its military readiness.


ASEAN Influence: As a key ASEAN member, Thailand leveraged regional diplomatic channels, as seen in Malaysia’s role in brokering the ceasefire.


Weaknesses:

International Criticism: Thailand’s use of controversial weapons, such as cluster munitions, and civilian casualties drew global condemnation, risking diplomatic isolation and potential sanctions.



Cambodia


Strengths

Chinese Backing: Cambodia’s strong relationship with China, including military and economic support, provided a strategic counterbalance to Thailand’s U.S. alliance. China’s involvement deterred Thailand from pursuing a decisive victory.


Legal Claims: Cambodia’s historical claims, backed by the 1962 ICJ ruling on Preah Vihear, offered international legitimacy, attracting sympathy from global actors.


Weaknesses:


Dependence on External Aid: Cambodia’s reliance on China limited its autonomy and could deepen its alignment with Beijing’s geopolitical agenda.



Strategic Strengths and Weaknesses Summary


Thailand

Strengths:


  • Superior military technology and air dominance.
  • Large, diversified economy with substantial reserves.
  • Strong international alliances, particularly with the U.S.



Weaknesses:


  • Political instability and leadership distractions.
  • Logistical challenges in rugged terrain.
  • Risk of international backlash due to controversial tactics.



Cambodia


Strengths:


  • Defensive terrain providing natural fortifications.
  • Potential military and economic support from China.
  • International legal backing for territorial claims.


Weaknesses:


  • Inferior military capabilities, especially in air power.
  • Limited economic resources to sustain conflict or manage humanitarian crises.
  • Heavy dependence on external aid, particularly from China.
  • Humanitarian and Psychological Dimensions


The conflict’s humanitarian toll and psychological operations further influenced strategic outcomes.


Humanitarian Impact:


Over 270,000 civilians were displaced (138,000 in Thailand, 134,707 in Cambodia), straining resources. Cambodia faced greater challenges due to its smaller economy.

Civilian casualties (19 Thai, 19 Cambodian) eroded public morale and drew international attention.



Psychological Operations:


Both nations used media and social media to shape narratives. Thailand accused Cambodia of initiating hostilities, while Cambodia framed Thailand as an aggressor. These efforts rallied domestic support but deepened mistrust.



Conclusion


The Cambodia-Thailand War of 2025 highlighted stark strategic disparities. Thailand’s military superiority, economic resilience, and U.S. alliance enabled tactical successes, such as capturing Phu Makeua, but political instability and international criticism limited its gains. Cambodia, despite military and economic weaknesses, leveraged defensive terrain and Chinese support to resist. The fragile ceasefire, brokered by Malaysia with U.S. and Chinese involvement, underscores the need for diplomatic resolution to address underlying disputes and prevent future escalation. Sustained dialogue and trust-building are essential for lasting stability in the region.


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