វិភាគចំណុចខ្លាំង និងចំណុចខ្សោយនៃយុទ្ធសាស្ត្រសង្គ្រាមកម្ពុជា-ថៃ

Strategic Strengths and Weaknesses of Cambodia and Thailand in the War

The Cambodia-Thailand War, which began on July 24, 2025, has highlighted the military, economic, and geopolitical disparities between the two nations. This analysis examines the strategic strengths and weaknesses of both Cambodia and Thailand, providing insight into their capacities to engage in and sustain the conflict.

Thailand's Strategic Strengths

1.Military Superiority

Thailand boasts a significantly larger and more advanced military, with approximately 361,000 active-duty personnel compared to Cambodia's 124,300. Its arsenal includes modern equipment such as U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets, Swedish Gripen aircraft, and Chinese VT-4 tanks. This gives Thailand a clear advantage in conventional warfare, particularly in air superiority, as demonstrated by its airstrikes on Cambodian positions near disputed border areas.

2.Economic Capacity

Thailand's economy is vastly larger than Cambodia's, with a GDP roughly 16 times greater. This economic strength enables Thailand to fund prolonged military operations, maintain supply chains, and procure advanced weaponry. Its industrial base also supports domestic production of military equipment, reducing reliance on foreign suppliers.

3.Technological Edge

Thailand's military leverages cutting-edge technology, including precision-guided munitions and advanced surveillance systems. These capabilities enhance its ability to conduct precise strikes and monitor Cambodian troop movements effectively.

4.Geographical Advantage

Thailand controls key high-ground positions, such as the Phu Makeua area along the border, providing tactical benefits for defense and artillery deployment.

Thailand's Strategic Weaknesses

1.Dispersed Military Forces

Thailand's military is spread across the country to address internal security concerns and regional commitments. This dispersion makes it challenging to concentrate forces quickly along the Cambodian border, potentially delaying critical reinforcements.

2.Political Instability

Thailand has a history of political volatility, including coups and civil unrest. This instability could weaken the government's focus on the war if domestic opposition grows or resources are diverted to maintain internal order.

3.International Criticism

Thailand's reported use of controversial weapons, such as cluster munitions, has drawn scrutiny from the international community. This could lead to diplomatic isolation or sanctions, limiting access to additional military support.

4.Logistical Difficulties

The rugged border terrain, including dense forests and mountains, complicates troop movements and supply lines, potentially slowing Thailand's operational pace.

Cambodia's Strategic Strengths

1.Defensive Positioning

Cambodia benefits from fighting on its home territory, giving it intimate knowledge of the terrain. This advantage is particularly evident in disputed areas like the Prasat Ta Muen Thom and Preah Vihear temples, where Cambodia can establish strong defensive positions.

2.Cohesive and Mobile Forces

Though smaller, Cambodia's military of 124,300 personnel is more cohesive and concentrated along the border. This allows for rapid responses to Thai incursions and efficient defensive maneuvers.

3.Geopolitical Alliances

Cambodia's strong relationship with China provides a potential lifeline for military and economic support. China could supply advanced weaponry or logistical aid, strengthening Cambodia's position in the conflict.

4.International Legitimacy

Cambodia holds a legal claim to key disputed territories, such as the Preah Vihear temple, affirmed by the International Court of Justice in 1962. This legitimacy could attract diplomatic backing from the international community.

Cambodia's Strategic Weaknesses

1.Military Inferiority

Cambodia's military is less advanced, relying on outdated Soviet-era and Chinese-supplied equipment like BM-21 rocket launchers. Its limited air force, with few combat aircraft, leaves it vulnerable to Thai airstrikes and unable to challenge Thailand's air dominance.

2.Economic Limitations

Cambodia's smaller economy lacks the industrial capacity to produce military equipment domestically, making it heavily dependent on external support. This restricts its ability to sustain a prolonged conflict.

3.Internal Challenges

Cambodia's history of internal conflict and political instability, compounded by corruption and weak governance, could hinder its ability to mobilize resources effectively for the war effort.

4.Humanitarian Burden

The displacement of over 270,000 civilians has strained Cambodia's limited social services. Balancing military needs with the demands of providing food, shelter, and medical care to displaced populations poses a significant challenge.

Conclusion

Thailand's strategic strengths—military superiority, economic capacity, and technological advantages—position it as the more powerful contender in the Cambodia-Thailand War. Its ability to deploy advanced air and ground forces gives it a significant edge in conventional combat. However, political instability, logistical challenges, and international pressure could undermine its long-term success.

Cambodia, despite being outmatched militarily, leverages its defensive positioning, cohesive forces, and potential Chinese support to resist Thai advances. Yet, its economic constraints and internal issues limit its capacity to endure a prolonged conflict. The war's outcome will likely hinge on Thailand's ability to capitalize on its strengths while managing vulnerabilities, and on Cambodia's resilience and external alliances.

Diplomatic intervention by regional and global powers will be crucial to resolve the military stalemate and address the escalating humanitarian crisis along the border.